By Matthew Hill
LANSING — A West Virginia University economics professor provided his assessment Tuesday evening of Fayette County’s economic outlook. Prognosis — the proverbial silver lining lurks along the rim of the New River Gorge in the form of housing developments.
“Fayette County, your time is coming,” declared Dr. Tom S. Witt, director of WVU’s Bureau of Business and Economic Research, to those assembled at Smokey’s On the Gorge.
“This is about maintaining an endless and seamless flow of information. The best way to deal with our future is by getting the straight facts,” explained Tom Wagner, general manager of housing developer Roaring Rivers, on why his company and New River Convention and Visitors Bureau invited Witt to Lansing.
“We’ve spent years in an ongoing dialogue with the community. Our plan has been fair game, and we’ve had nothing to hide. Everyone’s voice has been heard as we strive to leave the smallest footprint possible on the land. We’re committed to Fayetteville and the surrounding communities, and we’re here to stay,” Wagner asserted.
Following Wagner’s introduction, Witt launched into a brief PowerPoint presentation on the history of Fayette County’s economy, especially as it compares and contrasts with economic indicators of West Virginia and the United States.
Witt demonstrated how the county has lagged behind in several areas during recent years — non-farm job growth, per capita personal income, population growth, labor force participation, and educational attainment.
To underscore the last category Witt produced grim statistics, both of which are well below state and national levels — fully 31.4 percent of Fayette County residents who are 25 years old and older lack a high school education. Only 14 percent can claim a college degree of any kind.
The county ranks much higher, however, in the categories of median age and the percentage of workers who are 65 years of age and older.
Charts told the story of the nearly complete disappearance in Fayette County of manufacturing and coal mining jobs and the exponential growth in the services sector. Of the top 10 employers in the county, only three are private sector employers — nearly the opposite of most other areas of the country.
Population growth has stagnated in the state and county in the last 17 years, while the national population soared between 1969 and 2004. Real per capita income has grown in the county, reflecting similar growth on the state and national level.
Witt found that, while the largest number surveyed in 2000 live and work in the county, sizable percentages either live here and work elsewhere or reside elsewhere and work in Fayette County.
If he had a crystal ball, Witt would forecast the following for the county — continued aging of the population, slow employment growth, a nearly total absence of mining and manufacturing jobs, stagnant per capita income growth, and a slowdown in property tax revenues.
Witt sees a ray of hope for Fayette County, and it is one that has helped guide the area through some turbulent economic times in the past — tourism.
“Where there are major destinations and attractions, significant economic growth has occurred,” he said, citing Fayette, Greenbrier and Pocahontas counties as proof.
With the imminent retirement of Baby Boomers, a national trend is emerging in the realm of second homes.
“Retirees are attracted to areas with good medical care, good quality of life, and attractive recreational opportunities,” he said, adding that a ripple effect always accompanies home construction.
He estimates the coming explosion of home construction on the New River Gorge will positively impact area businesses to the tune of $1.13 billion. In addition, the county school board and county commission would be on the receiving end of $5.8 million in increased revenues.
As a bonus, said Wagner, most of those who have expressed interest in purchasing homes on the gorge are 45 years old and older. Many of them will pay property taxes but will not have children in the school system to utilize those funds, thus swelling the county’s coffers even further.
Witt specializes in regional economics, econometric modeling and forecasting, energy and public utility, and the West Virginia economy. He has penned two books and has taught at WVU since 1985. To learn more, log on to www.bber.wvu.edu.
— E-mail:
mhill@register-herald.com
